Increase your awareness using the “Knowns and Unknowns” framework

The “knowns and unknowns” framework allows teams of any kind to learn more and be more creative—and therefore, perform better. It does that by exploring all forms of knowledge. Only by making this space larger can a team come up with a larger solutions space.

It was on February 12, 2002 when Donald Rumsfeld, then US Secretary of Defense, coined this term during a Pentagon news briefing about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. His famous words were: “There are known knowns”, he said.

Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.

And so, the Rumsfeld Matrix was born. Since then, this framework has become a staple in decision-making, risk management, and strategic thinking across industries far beyond government.

When I heard of this for the first time, it really puzzled me and I struggled to grasp the concepts clearly. I finally understood that this framework tries to bring more knowledge about a certain context by creating systems that enable surfacing hidden or non-explicit information. The key insight: some bits of knowledge are observed and some others are not, and these bits carry different levels of risk and impact.

Like everything in life, complex concepts get simpler after examining real examples. Let’s explore each of these four “states of knowledge.”

Known Knowns: The Foundation of Your Knowledge

Known knowns refer to the facts we observe and understand. They form the bedrock of any decision-making process.

What are known knowns?

In software and operations, this means:

• Placing monitors and alerts to check facts against them
• Tracking metrics we know matter
• Confirming behaviors we’ve tested and verified

With these facts, you can generate more knowledge by analogy: “if this service struggles to serve 100 requests, then this other service probably will too as they are similar.”

Learning by pattern

When we learn a “cause-effect” in a particular context, we immediately learn to extrapolate it to similar situations. An example: when we learn to push a door after reading the “Push” sign, the next time we read the same thing, we push without thinking. We’ve learned by analogy—that’s a known known at work.

This can be powerful: you create something new and valuable from a mundane known known by inferring the knowledge behind the facts.

The winning technique to gain knowledge: lateral thinking (analogies, metaphors).

Known Unknowns: The Gaps We See

Known unknowns represent situations where we face something we’re aware exists, but we don’t fully understand it.

The observation without explanation

In the software world, many people have faced this scenario:

• A piece of code works, but the developer isn’t entirely sure why
• A button in a web app is remarkably successful, and nobody understands the reasons
• A metric spikes after a deployment, but causation is unclear

The critical difference: we observe something is happening—we just don’t have the causal explanation.

From observation to hypothesis

When dealing with known unknowns, state the knowledge behind your observations as hypotheses, not as facts. This is crucial. Many teams skip this and jump to conclusions, which leads to wrong interventions.

If your product metrics show increased engagement after a feature release:

• Hypothesis (correct): The feature might have caused it, along with other potential factors
• Conclusion (wrong): The feature caused it

The hypothesis needs to be confirmed or rejected using real facts and controlled observation.

The winning technique to gain knowledge: create a hypothesis, test, measure, iterate and reach conclusions based on facts.

Unknown Knowns: The Biases We Don’t See

Unknown knowns are the most subtle category: knowledge we possess but aren’t aware we possess. Unconscious decisions, biases, intuitive understanding—they shape our decisions silently.

The intuition trap

You’ve felt this: “I think this is the right thing to do” or “this doesn’t feel right,” even though you can’t justify it rationally. Sometimes it’s years of experience crystallized into intuition. A seasoned product manager walks into a meeting and immediately senses that a finding is off—not because they found a flaw, but because their experience tells them something’s wrong.

Surfacing what’s hidden

Unknown knowns manifest as:

• Cultural blind spots within organizations
• Unstated assumptions about your market
• Ingrained beliefs about what customers want
• Team practices nobody questions

To surface them, you can’t rely on rational analysis alone. Instead, adopt approaches grounded in:

• Intuition and feelings
• Structured brainstorming
• Cross-functional collaboration (what’s obvious to one group is invisible to another)
• External voices: advisors, customers, new team members

Group brainstorming is particularly valuable because one idea triggers many others in a domino effect.

The winning technique to gain knowledge: feedback, brainstorming, and team collaboration.

Unknown Unknowns: The Space Beyond Your Horizon

Unknown unknowns represent the most complex and potentially transformative category: knowledge we’re not even aware we should be looking for.

The risk of limited scope

Teams typically limit the scope of their knowledge to a limited amount of information. There’s potentially infinite knowledge outside of that. This is complex because people work better with things they observe—data, facts, previous knowledge through inference. But this achieves only incremental improvements.

Playing with the unknown takes you to a different level. You need a very open mind for that.

Real-world examples

In a software product:

• Users are actually using a spreadsheet alongside your app because they lack essential functionality. That knowledge could give you massive competitive advantage
• You’re optimizing for conversion rate, but nobody has asked whether your target market actually wants your solution
• You assume your interface is intuitive, but you’ve never watched real users try to use it without guidance

Exploring data with a completely different set of glasses reveals hidden, highly valuable insights.

The winning technique to gain knowledge: open mind, out-of-the-box thinking, and empathy.

Building Better Teams Through Knowledge Awareness

The real value of the Rumsfeld Matrix lies in recognizing that teams operate across all four quadrants simultaneously, and that the risk and impact of the “known” space is very different from the “unknown” space.

Different knowledge, different tools

You need different tools and techniques in each space:

• Known knowns: monitoring, alerts, pattern matching
• Known unknowns: targeted research, hypothesis testing, controlled experiments
• Unknown knowns: brainstorming, feedback loops, diverse perspectives
• Unknown unknowns: exploration budgets, curiosity, psychological safety

Moving forward

Organizations that thrive systematically move knowledge from the unknown quadrants into the known ones—or make deliberate choices about where to focus their energy. A discovered unknown unknown that becomes a known unknown is progress.

At Orbitant, we apply this framework when building solutions for our clients. Understanding the full landscape of your knowledge is the foundation for better decision-making, more resilient systems, and ultimately, more sustainable business outcomes. Teams that embrace this framework spot risks earlier, innovate more boldly, and adapt faster when the unexpected happens.

The knowns will always exist. But so will the unknowns. The difference is in whether you’re aware of them—and what you decide to do about it.